مۆدێلکردنی زنجیرە کاتییەکان و پێشبینیکردنی پێوەرەکانی نرخی بەکاربەر: شیکاری گشتگیر و گەڕان بەدوای ڕەوتی داهاتوو لە بازاڕی عێراقدا
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26436/hjuoz.2024.12.4.1397الكلمات المفتاحية:
بەکاربەر، نرخ، پێشبینی، ئاریما وە بازاری عێراقالملخص
ئامانجی ئەم لێکۆڵینەوە سەیرکردنی زانیارییەکانە بۆ پێوەرەکانی نرخی کڕیار (CPI) لە عێراق، کە داتاکان لە ساڵی ٢٠٠٠ تا ٢٠٢٣ وەرگیراون، بە بەکارهێنانی کۆئۆردینیاتی خۆپاشکەوتنی ئاسایی جووڵەی ئاسایی ARIMA کە بۆ لێکۆڵینەوەی نیشاندانی پێشوەختە بەکار هاتووە. سەرنجی سەرەکی ئەم توێژینەوە بریتیە لە پێویستی شێوازێکی پشتبەستوو بۆ دیاریکردنی نرخی بەکاربەر لە دیمەنێکی بەردەوام لە گۆڕاندا. ڕێبازەکە بریتیە لە وەرگرتنی داتای CPI لە ڕێکخراوی خۆراک و کشتوکاڵی نەتەوە یەکگرتووەکان FAO، بە بەکارهێنانی مۆدێلی (ARIMA (0,2,3) (0,0,1 [12] لە ڕیگای بەکارهینانی پرۆگرامی R، وە ئەنجامدانی شیکارییەکی گشتگیر کە ئاماری وەسفی پارامێتەری خەمڵاندن و تاقیکردنەوەکانی چەسپاندن لەخۆ گرتووە. دۆزینەوە سەرەکییەکان دەریخست کە مۆدێلی ARIMA بە شێوەیەکی کاریگەر نەخشەکانی CPIی گرتووە و پێشبینی کردووە کە لەگەڵ لێکۆڵینەوەکانی پێشوودا یەکدەگرێتەوە وە کاریگەرییەکەی لە بازاری عێراقدا نیشان دەدات. لە بنەڕەتدا، ئەنجامەکانی ئەم توێژینەوەیە تێڕوانینێکی بە نرخ بە ئەم کەسانە دەدات کە بەشدارن لە بڕیاردانی دارایی وە تێگەیشتنمان لە ڕەوتی نرخی کڕیارە ئەگەرییەکان بەرز دەکاتەوە وە گرنگی بەکارهێنانی مۆدێلی ARIMA لە شیکاری CPI لە بازاری عێراقدا دەردەخات.
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